169. From Coffee Brewing to Product Roadmaps: Tim Herbig on Decision-Making & AI in Product Management

Productized Podcast

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169. From Coffee Brewing to Product Roadmaps: Tim Herbig on Decision-Making & AI in Product Management

Discover how product leaders can refine their decision-making, implement structured product strategies, and leverage AI to enhance product management practices.

Productized

Mar 10, 2025

Transcript

In this episode of the Productized Podcast, host André Marquet speaks with Tim Herbig, an influential product management coach, author, and speaker. Tim has built a career around helping product teams connect the dots between product strategy, OKRs, and discovery. He has worked with companies such as StepStone, Chrono24, Deutsche Telekom, and Specsavers, and has held product roles at XING and multiple startups.

Tim shares his expertise on structured decision-making, the evolution of product management frameworks, and how AI is becoming an essential tool for product managers. He discusses his philosophy of applying product management thinking to decision-making, explains why blindly adopting frameworks is a mistake, and explores the role of AI in improving experimentation and strategic planning.

In this episode, Tim covered:

Why structured decision-making is critical in product management.
The challenges of balancing frameworks with real-world application.
How AI can enhance product discovery, OKRs, and experimentation.
The importance of defining a product roadmap that aligns with strategic goals.
Lessons from coffee brewing that apply to product leadership.

Some Takeaways from Tim:

Great decision-making starts with structured thinking. Tim emphasizes that product teams often struggle not because they lack data but because they fail to structure their decision-making processes. He advocates for using decision frameworks like impact mapping and OKRs to create alignment and clarity. However, he warns against rigidly applying frameworks without considering their relevance to the team's specific context.
Frameworks should be treated like products—customized to fit the need. Many companies adopt popular product management frameworks (e.g., the Spotify squad model, Amazon’s working backwards) without tailoring them to their own context. Tim argues that just as product teams build solutions for their unique customer base, they should design and iterate on their internal processes rather than copying industry best practices blindly.
AI is an enhancer, not a replacement, for product managers. Tim highlights how AI can assist in areas like synthesizing user insights, identifying patterns in customer behavior, and even refining leading indicators for OKRs. He stresses that AI is most valuable when integrated into existing workflows—such as using AI within Miro for product roadmaps—rather than as an external tool that adds friction.
Coffee brewing teaches us about iteration and precision. Tim draws an analogy between coffee brewing and product management, emphasizing the importance of experimentation. Just as adjusting water temperature and grind size impacts coffee quality, small iterative changes in product development can lead to major improvements in outcomes. The key is knowing which variables matter most and tracking progress over time.
The best product teams focus on "informed conviction." Instead of chasing absolute certainty, Tim encourages teams to focus on gaining "informed conviction." This means gathering enough qualitative and quantitative insights to confidently move forward rather than getting stuck in analysis paralysis. He suggests that every product decision should aim to reduce uncertainty in the most efficient way possible.
Aligning stakeholders requires explicit conversations and clear boundaries. Many product teams struggle with stakeholder alignment because expectations and priorities are not explicitly stated. Tim recommends structured alignment tools, such as one-pagers and OKRs, to ensure that leadership and teams are on the same page. He stresses the importance of making trade-offs clear and revisiting decisions regularly to adapt to changing conditions.
Roadmaps should balance strategic direction with team autonomy. Rather than dictating a rigid roadmap, Tim suggests defining high-level strategic goals while allowing teams to determine the best way to achieve them. He introduces the concept of "spheres of influence"—understanding what should be defined at the company level versus what should be left to product teams to iterate on.

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